Saturday April 27th
These are two teams are heading in polar opposite directions at present. Leipzig have won five on the trot as they netted 14 times and in addition, they also overcame Augsburg to secure a place in the DFB Pokal final where they’ll face Bayern in late May.
They’ve picked up some heavy home wins over bottom-half sides this term, including a 5-0 success over Hertha during their recent run, to go along with 6-0 and 4-1 victories over Nurnberg and Mainz respectively earlier in the campaign. Ralf Rangnick’s men have also won seven of their last eight against bottom-half sides home or away, netting at least three times in over half of these games.
By contrast, Freiburg are winless in five and though the first two were stalemates with Gladbach and Bayern, they’ve since lost the plot and suffered defeats to Mainz, Bremen and Dortmund by a combined score of 11-1. Further, the visitors have lost 23 of 29 winless trips to top-six sides since 2013/14, which includes comprehensive 4-0 and 4-1 defeats in this fixture over the previous two campaigns.
Saturday April 27th
It’s a rare occasion when Juve are at such a big price to win domestically, but although they have tough opponents in this fixture, their hosts are hardly at their convincing best either. The Nerazzurri have drawn two and lost two over their past four designated home fixtures, while stretching back to mid-January they’re still just W3-D4-L3 in all competitions at the San Siro, with the successes coming against Sampdoria, Rapid Vienna and SPAL.
Meanwhile, though Juve were given the run around by a youthful and vibrant Ajax side in the Champions League and were then stunned by SPAL domestically in between the two legs of that tie, they’ve since recovered to down Fiorentina and earn their eighth consecutive Scudetto.
Landing the title hasn’t prevented the Old Lady from winning their next game in each of the past three seasons, and they should do so again having racked up an impressive 10 wins from 11 unbeaten encounters with the divisions’ top eight sides this term, with those the teams that are realistically still challenging for European places at this late stage of the season.
Sunday April 27th
Since that defeat to Inter, SPAL have entered some superb form as they’ve taken maximum points in five of six outings, with the exception coming on their travels, as they impressively downed Roma, Lazio and Juve on home turf over this period. It’s not as though those top teams had nothing to play for either (their win over Juve delayed the Bianconeri’s title celebrations by a week) and if they continue on their current trajectory, they could well secure a hugely impressive top-half finish this term.
We’d back them to maintain their momentum hosting a struggling Genoa outfit, who’ve slipped further and further towards danger in recent weeks with five defeats from seven outings. However, with a five-point cushion over 18th-placed Empoli with just five games to go, they shouldn’t end up being dragged properly into the relegation mix in any case.
The visitors have however failed to net in nine appearances now, and with SPAL winning this fixture without conceding last term, they should continue their assault on the teams above them in the table.